000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032217 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT MAR 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO 00N83W TO 00N90W. THE ITCZ REMAINS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM 00N90W TO 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 03N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES... WHILE UPSTREAM...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NE PACIFIC N OF 30N ALONG 130W. AN ASSOCIATED 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 40N133W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES OF MEXICO ARE PRODUCING A ZONE OF FRESH N TO NE FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH...FRESH TO STRONG NELY TRADEWINDS ARE FOUND FROM 05N TO 23N W OF 120W. THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST TO 130W BY LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AND THE NW TO N FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. A MIX OF NE AND NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 12 FT COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W...BUT WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND RAPIDLY INDUCE NLY WINDS ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING TO INCREASE TO NEAR 55 KT AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A LARGE AND ELONGATE PLUME OF N TO NE WINDS WILL SPREAD WILL DOWNSTREAM FROM TEHUANTEPEC AND BUILD VERY LARGE SEAS...AS HIGH AS 20-22 FT IN THE AREA OF 50 KT WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 1034 MB HIGH OFFSHORE OF THE N CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 40W IS INDUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. N-NW GALES CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO 25N BASED ON AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING GALES MORE PREVALENT BETWEEN 25N AND 27N. MEANWHILE NW TO N WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FOUND FROM 21.5N TO 25N. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 10 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT ON MONDAY. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPANDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUN NIGHT...WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...AND THEN 20-30 KT BY MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SW AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BEYOND 300 NM BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. $$ STRIPLING