000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031612
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 03 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO 
00N83W TO 00N90W. THE ITCZ REMAINS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM 
00N90W TO 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 03N BETWEEN 
105W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROUND IN THE BASE OF A 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED 
STATES...AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NE 
PACIFIC N OF 30N ALONG 135W. AN ASSOCIATED 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH 
IS CENTERED NEAR 39N136W. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE 
TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE NORTH COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...AND A DEEP 
1002 MB LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO 
SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL 
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST TO 130W BY LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF 
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST 
WATERS AND THE NW TO N FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST IS EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. A MIX OF 
NE AND NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 12 FT...AND TO 14 FT OFF 
NORTHERN BAJA...COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BUT WILL 
SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE BEHIND A STRONG 
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SE. WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY. THIS WILL 
INITIATE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS 
EVENING AND STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A 
RANGE OF 18 TO 21 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A GALE IS N OF 29N OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. 20-30 KT WINDS ARE N OF 23N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...20 KT WINDS ARE OFF THE NICARAGUAN COAST AND 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN 12 HOURS AS 
GRADIENT FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN/FORMOSA