000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 03 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 104W AND 112W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 
THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
UNITED STATES...AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NE 
PACIFIC N OF 30N ALONG 138W. AN ASSOCIATED 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH 
IS CENTERED NEAR 39N136W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM 9V8797 AND 
ZCDG7 OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REPORTED N TO NW 
WINDS AT 25 KT AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 02/1730 UTC 
CONFIRMED THIS AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF 
A STRONG GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING 
FROM NORTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 
25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 
115W. THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST 
TO 130W BY LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHING 
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AND THE NW TO N 
FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE 
HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. A MIX OF NE AND NW SWELL WITH 
HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 12 FT...AND TO 14 FT OFF NORTHERN BAJA...COVERS 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BUT WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH 
LATE SUNDAY.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SINK 
SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
INITIATING A STORM FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BEGINNING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL 
QUICKLY RAMP UP IN VELOCITY AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 18 TO 24 FT BY LATE SUNDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO IS FORCING FRESH NW TO N WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 
TO 30 KT AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE GULF BY 
EARLY SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONGEST TRADE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY E OF 80W WITH ONLY MINIMAL 
FORCING OF NE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND WESTWARD TO 
90W. THE GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE 
SATURDAY AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 
KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS NE WINDS REMAIN STRONG 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
HUFFMAN