000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 02 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE 
EQUATOR. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES...AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NE 
PACIFIC N OF 30N ALONG 145W. AN ASSOCIATED 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH 
IS CENTERED NEAR 36N142W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM 3FPR9 AND 
9V8797 OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REPORTED N TO 
NW WINDS TO 30 KT...INDICATIVE OF A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
APPROACHING LOW PRES AND THE TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALSO SHOW A LARGE 
AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 03N 
TO 25N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
SHIFTS WEST TO 135W BY LATE SAT...AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
PUSHING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII. THE TRADE WIND 
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE AND THE NW TO N FLOW OFF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA COAST WILL DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRES 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. A MIX OF NE AND NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS 
OF 8 TO 12 FT...AND TO 15 FT OFF NORTHERN BAJA...COVERS MUCH OF 
THE AREA W OF 110W BUT WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN. MEANWHILE 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER 
15N135W TO 00N125W HAD BEEN SPAWNING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION 
EARLIER...BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO IS FORCING FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 27N THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER... TO THE 
NORTH...THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF 
PRODUCING NW WINDS TO 30 KT THAT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD 
SOUTHWARD THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE 
PERIOD LATE SATURDAY. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 
THIS FLOW WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY SAT WITH ONLY 
AN AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REMAINING 
ABOVE A 20 KT THRESHOLD DUE TO AN OVERALL GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WIND FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 
KT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN