000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 02 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE 
EQUATOR. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA CENTERED 
NEAR 37N144W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 
20N110W. NW TO N WINDS PERSIST ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA PRIMARILY N OF 24N E OF 122W ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY 
SATURDAY. 15-17 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9-14 FT BY 
FRIDAY. THE SWELL WILL THEN DECAY AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD AND 
WAVE ENERGY DISSIPATES. BY SATURDAY...NW WINDS FILTERING THROUGH 
PASSES IN THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL PROVIDE N TO NE WINDS IN 
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 26N E OF 117W. 

S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 114W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL GRADUALLY 
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHIFTING THE AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WESTWARD SLIGHTLY...REMAINING MAINLY 
W OF 118W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 15N140W 
AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM 
LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATING TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OVER 
THE AREA FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W TO THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA AND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
IS GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS FORCING FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 27N THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER... 
TO THE NORTH...THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE 
NORTHERN GULF PRODUCING NW WINDS TO 30 KT THAT ARE FORECAST TO 
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE END 
OF THE PERIOD LATE SATURDAY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE 
FRIDAY. A RECENT 01/1614 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED AN AREA FROM 
09N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W OF NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 
20 TO 25 KT. THIS AREA OF WIND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN AREAL 
COVERAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY 
TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REMAINING ABOVE A 20 KT THRESHOLD DUE TO 
AN OVERALL GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
TRADE WIND FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 
TO 25 KT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
HUFFMAN