000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 01 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1415 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS N OF EQUATOR ALONG 00N100W 02N106W 00N110W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N145W 
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N110W. THE REMAINS OF A 
COLD FRONT HAVE ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL PASS THROUGH 
NE WATERS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY FRI. THE 
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI BEFORE 
DISSIPATING. 16-18 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL IS PASSING INTO NE 
WATERS BEHIND THE FRONTAL REMAINS. THIS WILL RAISE SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 10-14 FT BY FRI. THE SWELL WILL THEN DECAY 
AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD. 

S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL GRADUALLY 
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...EXPANDING THE AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS EASTWARD.

THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS N OF 10N BETWEEN 130W T0 140W. A 
70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS 
TROUGH. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD 
FROM NEAR 10N130W TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W.     

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER N 
CENTRAL MEXICO IS FORCING FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND S ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST TO 19N. THIS 
AREA OF WIND IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE FRI MORNING. AT 
THE SAME TIME...THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE 
NORTHERN GULF. NW WINDS TO 30 KT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 
LENGTH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE AREA 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THAT TIME. 
IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF ENHANCED NE TO E WINDS EXTENDS DOWNWIND 
FROM PAPAGAYO ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W TO 110W. 
EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH SAT.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN 
STRONG OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
FORMOSA