000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 01 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 103W AND 117W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
THE 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N146W 
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N110W. A TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT LIES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. 
A 29/1632 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED BY THIS PRESSURE 
GRADIENT. 

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
NEAR 35N121W SW TO NEAR 31N135W AND IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN MARINE 
IMPACTS ON THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO 
THURSDAY. FRESH NW WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG BEHIND 
THE FRONT AND EXPAND WESTWARD TO 125W BY LATE FRIDAY. 16-18 
SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ENTER INTO NE WATERS BEHIND THE 
FRONT AS WELL...RAISING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF  
9 TO 13 FT BY FRIDAY. 

S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 116W AS SEEN BY THE 29/1814 UTC ASCAT 
PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF 
THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 16N136W. A 60-90 
KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH. 
THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER 
THE AREA FROM 09N TO 26N BETWEEN 107W AND 130W. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 11N130W TO 19N122W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS 
MAXIMIZED. ELSEWHERE...THE MOISTURE IS MANIFESTED AS BANDS OF 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 08N95W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N109W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE 
SURFACE LIES NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS BEING LIFTED BY DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT THUS RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LATEST PULSE OF 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE 
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 27N EXTENDING S TO 22N E OF 110W. THEY 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ENTERS THE 
NORTHERN BAJA AND MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA LATER ON FRIDAY. THESE 
NW WINDS WILL SPREAD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WATERS BY 03/000O UTC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...HOWEVER THE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN AREA 
OF ENHANCED NE TO E WINDS EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO ROUGHLY 
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W TO 110W. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY 
SHRINK THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PANAMA... NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
HUFFMAN