000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290914 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED FEB 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 108W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 01S125W THEN NORTH TO 01N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 1033 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N150W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LIES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 0406 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED BY THIS PRES GRADIENT. THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST TO 18N BY THU MORNING AND DIMINISH TO FRESH BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRI. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND PASS THROUGH NE WATERS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRESH NW WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. 16-18 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PASS INTO NE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...RAISING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 10-14 FT BY EARLY FRI. S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W AS SEEN BY THE 0544 UTC ASCAT PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 15N140W. A 60-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR 10N130W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 20N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W NEAR THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. ELSEWHERE...THIS MOISTURE IS MANIFESTED AS BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 07N95W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N105W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE LIES UNDER ITCZ. MOISTURE CONVERGED IN THIS AREA IS BEING LIFTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ENHANCING THE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE W COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TO 18N AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT THROUGH THU MORNING. BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WINDS LESS WILL TEMPORARILY BE LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER ON FRI. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0402 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL TURN OFF THE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FRI MORNING. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS FAR W AS 107W BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP BATFR53 AND THE 0402 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK IN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GULF OF PANAMA...THE 0220 UTC ASCAT PASS FAILED TO SHOW WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. FRESH N WINDS WILL THEN PERSIS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY FRI MORNING. $$ SCHAUER