000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282153 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE FEB 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95W TO 120W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... A 1032 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 31N136W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 18N110W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 31N109W TO 27N112W AND EXTENDS INTO PACIFIC WATERS TO 22N120W. 20 KT NW FLOW LIES OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRONT ACCORDING TO AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 28/1654 UTC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A LINGERING ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN REMAINING TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 118W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N121W TO 18N138W. A 60-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR 12N126W THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY AS MULTILAYERED BANDS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN WATERS NEAR 06N96W AND IS MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT N OF 06N E OF 105W. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF 06N...MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 27N AND A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER INLAND WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WINDS THAT FEED THROUGH THE ISTHMUS VEER IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY...FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND SUBSEQUENT DRAINAGE INTO THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS GENERATING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BEYOND TO THE WEST THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIDDLE LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS FAR W AS 105W BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP BATFR53 AND A RECENT 28/1658 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GULF OF PANAMA...AN EARLIER AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS INDICATED LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE NORTH WIND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ HUFFMAN