000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 27 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 00N122W TO 04N133W TO 04N140W...WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

AN VIGOROUS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING PAST SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO 25N140W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOS 
ANGELES TO 30N121W TO 27N127W TO 30N137W. THE WILL PUSH FURTHER 
SOUTH TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
BAJA TO 22N125W...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY TUE. ASCAT PASS AT 1900 UTC SHOWED VERY 
STRONG N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD LARGE N SWELL INTO NE PORTION OF 
DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE.

TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AT LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MODEST CONVECTION ALONG 
10N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT S OF PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS S OF 
10N E OF 95W...TO INCLUDE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT PASS AT 1536 UTC ALONG WITH EARLIER  
SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE GAP WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20 KT. 
GUIDANCE INDICATES 20 TO 25 KT GAP FLOW THROUGH WED MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND 
FROM PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT LEAST AS 
FAR W AS 95W BASED ON OBSERVATIONS 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS. THESE 
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN 
GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING PAST SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY 
SUNRISE TUE...PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER MAINLAND 
MEXICO. N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH S OF 28N IN THE GULF AS 
FAR S AS 19N ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BY EARLY WED MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CROSSING 
THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH 20-25 KT N WINDS PULSING IN THE GULF THROUGH WED.

$$
MUNDELL