000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 27 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N123W TO 04N134W TO 04N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N128W WILL 
DIG SE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST MON NIGHT AND
WEAKEN TUE. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTS SW FROM CALIFORNIA... 
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE 
PACIFIC FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO HAWAII...INCLUDING MUCH OF 
THE NW DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BY MIDWEEK AS LOW PRES LIFTS OUT TO THE NE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH 
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO SHIFT SE.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 
105W AND 115W...AND PROVIDING ENOUGH LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A NEGATIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM 17N125W TO 05N110W.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N95W 
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S MEXICO AND 
ACTING TO DEFLECT N WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC 
EXPECT FRESH N WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF THROUGH TUE MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT IN SW CARIBBEAN IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL 
ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
REFLECT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...INCREASING THE TROUGHING ALONG THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH S OF PAPAGAYO AND EXPANDING THE AREA OF 
FRESH NE WINDS AS FAR AS 105W BY TUE MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 29N AHEAD 
OF A TROUGH ON MON AS THE VIGOROUS LOW MAKES ITS WAY SE ALONG 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE...SPILLING OUT OF THE GULF TO 
20N TUE NIGHT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CROSS THE ISTHMUS
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL