000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 26 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N123W TO 03N140W. THERE IS 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
42N132W WILL DIG SE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AHEAD 
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 150W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT BETWEEN A 1038 MB SURFACE CENTERED NEAR 
42N147W...AND A 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 
THIS IS RESULTING IN STRONG N TO NE WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE 
PACIFIC FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO HAWAII...TO INCLUDE MUCH OF 
THE NW DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. SHIP AND ALTIMETER 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS FROM 11 TO 13 FT IN THIS AREA. FRESH 
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT RELATED 
TO THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE 
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TONIGHT...DISSIPATING 
BY LATE TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LOW 
PRES LIFTS OUT TO THE NE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...ALLOWING THE 
RIDGE TO SHIFT SE. 

THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH PRES TO THE SE TOWARD 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA COAST...MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 
FRESH TRADES FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W...AND 
PROVIDING ENOUGH LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SPORADIC 
CONVECTION IN THE SAME AREA. A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS 
OVER THIS AREA FROM 17N125W TO 05N110W...AIDING IN THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. THE TROUGH HAD ALSO BEEN AIDING 
IN MODEST CONVECTION THAT WAS FIRING CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR OVER 
NIGHT. FURTHER WEST...TRADES TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TUE.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0550 UTC OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 
30 KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. 
CONSIDERING THIS MAY BE A LOW BIAS...WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE 
PROBABLY ONGOING. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER THE 
DIURNAL MAXIMA IN DRAINAGE FLOW OCCURS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TO 
18 UTC. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS 
AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR STRONG N TO NE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS 
INCREASING BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING 
OVER COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THIS GRADIENT IS 
RESPONSIBLE FOR SUSTAINED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
EARLY TUE MORNING. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING 
DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REFLECT DOWN TO 
THE SURFACE...INCREASING THE TROUGHING ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH S OF PAPAGAYO AND EXPANDING THE AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS AS 
FAR AS 104W BY TUE MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE SYSTEM DROPPING S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY MON. 
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N113W TO 30N115W BY EARLY TUE 
MORNING...WITH FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND IT AND FRESH SW WINDS N OF 
29N AHEAD OF IT.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG NE TO E TRADES PERSIST OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CARIBBEAN ENTRANCE OF THE 
PANAMA CANAL REPORTED NE WINDS AT 20 KT. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM 
IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH 
AT LEAST TUE. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AND INCONSISTENCY 
AMONG GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE 
WINDS...BUT GIVEN THE MORNING SHIP OBSERVATIONS...N WINDS TO 20 
KT WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

$$
SCHAUER/CHRISTENSEN