000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 26 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N120W TO 00N137W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN
106W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 27N125W IS A REFLECTION 
OF A MID LEVEL LOW AT THE SURFACE. THE CIRCULATION AND THE MID 
LEVEL LOW HAVE DISPLACED SURFACE RIDGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 20N AND 
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO TRADE WINDS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ITCZ. 
ASCAT DATA AT 1620 UTC SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS NEAR
10N108W...PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT 
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. 

A RIDGE EXTENDS S ALONG 140W FROM HIGH PRES NEAR 40N. TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT HAS SET UP BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRC NOTED ABOVE AND THE
RIDGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NE WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 125W. MID LEVEL 
LOW AND SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL LIFT NE SUN AND MON ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO 
NORTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH FRESH NW TO N 
WINDS REACHING TO ABOUT 28N E OF 125W EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE MON NIGHT OR TUE OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND ADJACENT 
PACIFIC WATERS E OF 115W. EXPECT WINDS TO REACH 20 KT N OF 29N 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE BAJA COAST.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN 
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE 
CHIVELA PASS...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PEAKING AT 40-45 KT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES OVER NE 
MEXICO WEAKENS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
TROUGHING OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED FRESH TO 
STRONG E-NE WINDS TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT 
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL