000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 25 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N110W TO 01N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN
103W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 27N125W IS A REFLECTION 
OF A MID LEVEL LOW AT THE SURFACE. THE CIRCULATION AND THE MID 
LEVEL LOW HAVE DISPLACED SURFACE RIDGING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG 20N 
AND ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ITCZ. 
ASCAT DATA AT 1620 UTC SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS NEAR
10N108W...PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT 
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W. 

A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 140W WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH 
NEAR 40N138W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC
NOTED ABOVE AND THE RIDGE...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 25N W 
OF 125W. MID LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL LIFT NE SUN 
AND MON ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH 
FRESH NW TO N WINDS REACHING TO ABOUT 28N E OF 125W EARLY MON. 
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE MON NIGHT OR TUE OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND 
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS E OF 115W.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN 
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE 
CHIVELA PASS...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PEAKING AT 40-45 KT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES OVER NE 
MEXICO WEAKENS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
TROUGHING OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED FRESH TO 
STRONG NE WINDS TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL