000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 25 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N112W TO 04N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS SHOWS LIGHT TO 
MODERATE E-NE TRADE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA EXCEPT 
FOR A SMALL PORTION N OF 28N W OF 125W ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT SE OF A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA. HIGHEST SEAS ARE
FOUND N OF 25N AND ARE THE RESULT OF N SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG
NLY WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE LAST TWO DAYS.

A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST 
NEAR 28N122W WITH LIGHT WINDS. BUT STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE 
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NW OF THE CIRCULATION
AND ALLOW NE WINDS TO FRESHEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ELSEWHERE... 
EXCEPT FOR GAP WINDS...THROUGH MON MORNING. MODERATE NE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED S OF 24N W OF 115W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT 
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
TEHUANTEPEC. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO NW PORTION OF FCST 
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. EXPECT 8 TO 13 FT SEAS IN N TO 
NE SWELL NW OF LINE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO AROUND 17N140W TO BE 
PRIMARY FOCUS IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...WHEN 
SEAS GENERATED BY THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS S OF 20N W OF 120W 
WILL START TO BECOME A FACTOR AGAIN.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS 
THE CHIVELA PASS AND PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO 35 KT SHORTLY AFTERWARD...AND PEAK AT AROUND 40 KT LATE SAT 
NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS BUT REMAIN 20-25 KT THROUGH MON NIGHT 
OR EARLY TUE. STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL TO 13-14 FT SUN MORNING WHICH WILL SPREAD
OUT AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8-9 FT BY MON MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INCREASED EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL 
AND SW CARIBBEAN SAT WILL BRING NE-E WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
20-25 KT FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W INCLUDING PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE.

$$
MUNDELL