000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241745 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1745 UTC FRI FEB 24 2012

UPDATED DISCUSSION SECTION FOR SURFACE LOW POSITIONS
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N105W TO 02N120W TO 02N134W TO
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 133W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...UPDATED
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST REGION OF THE 
SW TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PINCHING OFF FROM THE TROUGH OVER NW 
MEXICO AT 26N108W. BEHIND THE TROUGH...BROAD MID/LEVEL RIDGING 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS 
CAUGHT UP IN THE SRN STREAM BRANCH OVER SRN TEXAS AND THE SE 
U.S. UPPER ENERGY ALONG THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL 
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE FAR NE WATERS NEAR 30N121W TODAY
...THEN IT WILL MOVE SSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO A 
TROUGH LATER ON SAT AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE BROAD 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL 
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE SAT INTO SUN AS A SHARPENING UPPER 
TROUGH MOVES INLAND THE WRN U.S.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N139W SE TO 
NEAR 20N123W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF THE AREA OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS 
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE TRADES OVER NRN 
PORTION OF THE REGION N OF 27N AND BETWEEN 122W-131W SEAS ARE 
LARGE OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA...UP TO 15 FT AS REPORTED BY 
SHIP "WDC3786" AT 29N130W AS OF 1530 UTC.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE HIGH FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN THE HIGH WHICH WILL THEN MERGE WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES 
WELL TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA
OF N-NE 20 KT WINDS TO EXPAND TO N OF 24N W OF 123W BY 24 HRS
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT. AN AREA OF NE-E 20 KT TRADES 
IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SRN WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 124W.
THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
SUN AS THE STRONG HIGH CENTER NW OF THE AREA WEAKENS SOME AS
IT SHIFTS SEWD.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW MEXICO AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL HELP CREATE A SURFACE LOW IN THE SW GULF OF 
ON SAT AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE BUILDING PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES WILL HELP FUNNEL
IN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC STARTING SAT MORNING...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE 
FORCE BY SUNSET SAT AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO SUN WITH 
POSSIBLE MAX SPEEDS OF 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN U.S. ON SUN WILL 
INTERACT WITH LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA TO BRING NE-E WINDS OF 
20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINNING LATE SAT AND INTO 
SUN MORNING. 

$$
AGUIRRE