000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH NOT ANALYZED. ITCZ AXIS 04N120W TO 06N128W TO 
BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 27N115W...WITH A TROUGH FROM 
THE CIRCULATION TO 23N130W TO BEYOND 25N140W. AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 31N128W IS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED 
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. A 70-90 KT 
UPPER JET IS SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N120W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE BIG BEND OF 
TEXAS. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 100W...INCLUDING 
SE MEXICO AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 37N137W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 20N114W. 
PRES GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE 
WINDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...AND MODERATE TO FRESH 
NE TRADES W OF 120W. A WINDSAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATION OF 
20-25 KT WINDS N OF 28N W OF 125W. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE-E TRADE 
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH PRES 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ONCE AGAIN...STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE 
OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 
THE N WATERS BY LATE FRI. EXPECT N-NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 
SEAS IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF A LINE FROM 
30N124W TO 27N128W. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED FAR N-NW OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO 
SWEEP INTO THE REGION...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING AS THE SWELL 
MOVES AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO 
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE TRADE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE AREA OF STRONGER NE WINDS WILL 
SHRINK SOUTHWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF NLY SWELL 
INTO NORTHERN PORTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH NE-E WINDS THROUGH 
THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NE FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN WEAKEN. EXPECT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT.

$$
GR