000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH NOT ANALYZED. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS 
SOUTH OF EQUATOR E OF 110W. NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 00N110W TO 02N115W TO 02N134W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 37N137W EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGE SE 
TO NEAR 22N122W. PRES GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS MAINTAINING FRESH
NE TRADES NW PORTION. ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING GENERATED BY SLY 
FLOW S OF 05N CONVERGING INTO STRONGER NE WINDS W OF 120W. ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 1900 UTC SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS NW OF LINE 
30N127W TO 20N140W. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-NE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED FAR N-NW OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO 
SWEEP INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING 
AS THE SWELL MOVES SE FROM ITS SOURCE REGION. NW WAVES ARE MIXING
WITH NE WIND WAVES BEING GENERATED LOCALLY BY ENHANCED E-NE TRADE
WINDS W OF 118W. 

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN THU 
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD PAC NW COAST. NE TRADE WINDS WILL 
THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-20 KT W OF 120W AND AREA OF FRESH NE 
WINDS WILL SHRINK SOUTHWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THU WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF 
NLY SWELL INTO NORTHERN PORTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN TERRAIN OVER NICARAGUA 
THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH E-NE WINDS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THU THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 
IN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG NE FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH 
TONIGHT. EXPECT 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT SEAS WILL 
BE LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL