000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS 00N110W 3N120W 1N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF AXIS FROM 125W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE CENTRAL 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 27N115W...WITH A TROUGH FROM THE 
CIRCULATION TO 23N125W 25N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AN UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. A 95-105 KT UPPER JET IS SE OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 21N118W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA INTO 
NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. THIS JET IS 
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS N-CENTRAL MEXICO.

A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 
15N118W TO 8N113W. THIS TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED TO THE W OF A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL 
AMERICA  AND SE MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC WATERS N OF 06N E OF 
100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N95W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. PRES 
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING 20-25 KT NE TRADES W OF 130W. NE TRADE 
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-20 KT W OF 120W AND AREA 
OF WINDS WILL SHRINK SOUTHWARD. 

ELY WIND THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NLY WIND THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PANAMA...BOTH IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 20 
KT BY EARLY FRI.

$$
DGS