000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH NOT ANALYZED. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS 
SOUTH OF EQUATOR E OF 115W. NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 04N117W TO 05N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 37N138W EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGE SE 
TO NEAR 23N121W. PRES GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS MAINTAINING FRESH
NE TRADES W OF 120W. ACTIVE ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING GENERATED BY
SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF 05N CONVERGING INTO STRONGER NE WINDS BETWEEN
120W AND 125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 1740 UTC ALSO SHOWS MODERATE
TO FRESH N WINDS N OF 27N NEAR 125W. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-NE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED FAR N-NW OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO 
SWEEP INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING 
AS THE SWELL MOVES SE FROM ITS SOURCE REGION. NW WAVES ARE MIXING
WITH NE WIND WAVES BEING GENERATED LOCALLY BY ENHANCED NE TRADE 
WINDS BETWEEN 06N AND 21N W OF 120W. 

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING 
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN THU AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD PAC NW COAST. NE TRADE WINDS WILL THEN 
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-20 KT W OF 120W AND AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS 
WILL SHRINK SOUTHWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THU...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER 
SURGE OF NLY SWELL INTO NORTHERN PORTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN TERRAIN OVER NICARAGUA 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRESH E-NE WINDS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THU THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 
IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG NE FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED 
AFTERNOON. EXPECT 20 KT WINDS THROUGH WED MORNING BUT SEAS WILL 
BE LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL