000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 01N100W TO 06N112W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
04N117W 1010 MB TO A SECOND LOW PRES NEAR 03N129W. ITCZ FROM 
03N129W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
06N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
ACROSS THE N WATERS TO 26N125W TO BEYOND 28N140W. STRONG W TO SW 
FLOW IS NOTED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND 20N. THIS TROUGH 
IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST...AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED 
ALONG 145W N OF 30N. AN ASSOCIATED 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES 
AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 32N145W. THIS SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN A BROAD AREA FROM 08N TO 28N W OF 120W. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FEW SHIP REPORTS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 
THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS ENHANCED AS WELL BY A 
COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED WELL TO THE 
SOUTH NEAR 04N117W AND NEAR 03N129W. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS 
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY NW OF 
LINE FROM 30N126W TO 20N134W...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES 
MOVES NE AND INTENSIFIES.

MEANWHILE SUCCESSIVE TRAINS OF NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 15 
SECONDS AND HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT CONTINUE TO MIX WITH FRESH NE 
SWELL OVER THE AREA W OF 110W.

FURTHER SOUTH...A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 16N120W TO 05N118W TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED 
NEAR CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS AT SALINA CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN COAST 
OF THE ISTHMUS WERE REPORTED TO BE 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS. IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO WAS ALSO REPORTING GUSTY 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS OVER THE WATER ARE LIKELY REACHING GALE 
FORCE AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE LATE MON MORNING. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MODERATES 
AND SHIFTS EAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE AID OF 
LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WILL START TO INCREASE MON...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TUE MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE 
OF THE PANAMA CANAL WERE REPORTING N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT. THE 
ENHANCED FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND INTO 
THE GULF OF PANAMA BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 

$$
GR