000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 02N93W TO 05N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
05N115W 1011 MB TO 01N130W. ITCZ FROM 01N130W TO BEYOND 01N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MIGRATING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THEN WEST TO 28N135W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED 
RELATED NW TO N WINDS AROUND 20 KT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS 
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT LIFTS NE AND WEAKENS. THE MAIN LONG 
WAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST...AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE 
CENTERED ALONG 145W N OF 30N. AN ASSOCIATED 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH 
PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 33N145W...AND IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS IN A BROAD AREA FROM 05N TO 27N W OF 115W. 
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS ENHANCED AS WELL BY WEAK LOW PRES ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR 03N125W. MEANWHILE 
SUCCESSIVE TRAINS OF NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS AND 
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT CONTINUE TO MIX WITH FRESH NE SWELL OVER 
THE AREA W OF 110W.

FURTHER SOUTH...A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 18N125W TO 05N119W TO THE WEST OF A AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED 
OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE AREA OF THE RESULTING UPPER JET BETWEEN 
THESE FEATURES HAD BEEN AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W TO 
115W. THIS HAS DIMINISHED EARLY TODAY...BUT IS STARTING TO FLARE 
UP AGAIN. UPPER DIVERGENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS 
MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSIST S OF THIS AREA 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 118W.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PUSHING INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS AT SALINA CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN 
COAST OF THE ISTHMUS WERE REPORTED TO BE 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS OVER THE WATER ARE LIKELY REACHING 
GALE FORCE AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE LATE MON MORNING. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MON AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
MODERATES AND SHIFTS EAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE AID OF 
LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WILL START TO INCREASE MON...ALLOWING FOR THE START OF MORE 
SUSTAINED GAP WIND FLOW IN THE PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...SHIP OBSERVATIONS ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE 
PANAMA CANAL ARE REPORTING N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT. THE ENHANCED 
FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA BY LATE MONDAY. 
$$
CHRISTENSEN