000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 03N96W TO 07N106W TO 04N112W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 04N118W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES 03N125W 1010 MB TO 
00N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MIGRATING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST TOWARD THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
THEN WEST TO 28N135W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RELATED NW TO 
N WINDS AROUND 20 KT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE 
ENERGY ALOFT LIFTS NE AND WEAKENS. THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS 
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST...AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 
145W N OF 30N. AN ASSOCIATED 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS 
CENTERED NEAR 33N145W...AND IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS IN A BROAD AREA FROM 05N TO 27N W OF 115W. THE TRADE WIND 
FLOW IS ENHANCED AS WELL BY WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR 03N125W. MEANWHILE SUCCESSIVE 
TRAINS OF NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS OF 8 
TO 12 FT CONTINUE TO MIX WITH FRESH NE SWELL OVER THE AREA W OF 
110W.

FURTHER SOUTH...A BROAD AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 18N125W TO 05N119W. TO THE WEST OF A AN UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE AREA OF THE RESULTING UPPER JET 
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAD BEEN AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W TO 
115W. THIS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT MAY 
FLARE UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. UPPER DIVERGENCE AT THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSIST S OF 
THIS AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 118W.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LAND BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT SALINA 
CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS TEHUANTEPEC INDICATE 
WINDS ARE LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO AT 
LEAST 20 KT. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS A STRONG...BUT FAST MOVING...COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE 
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER SUNRISE ON MON. A 
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY 
DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY MON EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON MORNING. THE STRONGEST 
WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF 
DRAINAGE FLOW. THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
START TO INCREASE MON...ALLOWING FOR THE START OF MORE SUSTAINED 
GAP WIND FLOW IN THE PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE 
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA STARTING MON NIGHT DUE 
TO STRONGER TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
 
$$
SCHAUER/CHRISTENSEN