000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191518 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN FEB 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N96W TO 07N106W TO 04N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 05N122W 1010 MB TO 00N131W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 00N131W TO BEYOND 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 127W AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT ARE MOVING INTO NW MEXICO AND ADJACENT NE WATERS. BOTH THE 0554 UTC ASCAT AND 0204 UTC WINDSAT PASSES SHOW 20 KT NW TO N WINDS MAINLY N OF 27N E OF 130W. 20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14-15 FT IN NW SWELL BY MON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE U.S. GREAT BASIN TO 32N114W TO 27N127W TO BEYOND 30N140W SUPPORTS THIS FRONT. THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL RELOAD WITH ENERGY FROM THE FAR N PACIFIC ON MON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GENERAL PATTERN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS ONLY SLIPPING A FEW DEGREES FARTHER S THROUGH TUE MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...A BROAD AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N125W TO 04N117W. MID-LEVEL ENERGY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 05N122W. CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE LOW...BUT IS LIMITED BY THE STRONG NW SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. MORE DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND MORE DEEP-LAYER MOSITURE CAN BE FOUND E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHERE THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH CAN BE FOUND ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W TO 110W. A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N144W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND THIS RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ W OF 117W. THE 0554 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS LIE W OF 130W. MEANWHILE...NW SWELL WITH 13 TO 15 SECOND PERIODS AND HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND MIX WITH FRESH NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTING TRADE WIND FLOW. ...GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG...BUT FAST MOVING...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER SUNRISE ON MON. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY MON EVENING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL START TO INCREASE MON...ALLOWING FOR THE START OF MORE SUSTAINED GAP WIND FLOW IN THE PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA STARTING MON NIGHT DUE TO STRONGER TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. $$ SCHAUER/GR