000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N90W TO 06N111W TO 01N127W TO 01N131W THEN 
ITCZ TO BEYOND 01N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 122W TO 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN  
ARIZONA TO 18N112W TO BEYOND 13N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS AND 
MODERATE SUBSIDING AIR WITHIN NINE DEGREES W OF AXIS CURTAILS  
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  ELSEWHERE...WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 09N111W TO 00N101W ASSOCIATED WITH 70 KT 
SW JET CORE HELPS ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS AND GULF OF MEXICO WHERE STATIONARY 
FRONT MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB AT 36M144W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N115W 
AND ENHANCES FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE FROM 06N TO 27N W OF 
125W.  RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE AREA OF TRADE 
WINDS.  

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM LOW PRES CENTER EMBEDDED ON 
MONSOON TROUGH AT 05N115W TO 09N119W CONTRIBUTES MECHANICAL 
UPLIFT TO MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS AND UPPER TROUGH COMBINES WITH 
MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT BUT PRODUCES ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W TO 115W. 

FRESH NW AND N WINDS CONVERGE JUST N OF RIDGE AXIS NEAR COAST OF 
CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AS FUNNELING WINDS MOVE S ALONG GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA INCREASING SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT THROUGH 
SAT.

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH NLY BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA HAVE DIMINISHED TO A 
MODERATE N BREEZE. 

LOOKING AHEAD...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN 
AS HEALTHY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SW GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG TO 
NEAR GALE NLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF MAY CARRY 
BRIEF GUST THAT COULD REACH GALE FORCE LATE SUN.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES