000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N90W TO 05N110W. ITCZ FROM 05N110W 
TO 03N120W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.  

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE N WATERS. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
20N120W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 14N140W. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT 
HAS DISSIPATED AND CURRENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 25N112W 
TO 23N118W TO 24N125W. FRESH NLY WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE TROUGH 
PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS WITH SEAS OF 10-11 FT IN NW 
SWELL. THE TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DISSIPATED IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N140W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE 
FORECAST WATERS COVERING N OF 10N AND W OF 110W. FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS CAN BE FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
MAINLY FROM 08 TO 20N W OF 130W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES PARTICULARLY W OF 130W.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TROPICAL N PACIFIC REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST 
W OF 110W...AND THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH 
LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA 
BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. E OF 100W...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. 

REGIONAL WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 
12 FT AND PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS. THIS SWELL EVENT CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W AND IS MIXING WITH 
SHORTER PERIOD NE TRADE WIND WAVES. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW 
SWELL WILL REACH THE NW CORNER TODAY.

...GAP WINDS...
NE TO E WINDS AT 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR 
DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. 

NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE PASSING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA BUT ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS. 

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SUN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SO FAR...MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS OF 
30 KT IN THAT AREA.
 
$$
GR