000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170401
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 01N92W TO 05N105W TO 1011 MB LOW 
PRES AT 04N111W TO 01N121W THEN ITCZ TO 03N135W TO BEYOND 
03N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 31N114W HAS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROUNDING 
ITS BASE AND SUPPORTING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N112W TO  
26N112W TO 24N120W TO 25N126W.  FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES FRI  
AS CYCLONE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NE OF AREA.  FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N BREEZE BEHIND COLD FRONT AFFECT WATERS W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 126W AND BUILDS SEAS TO 12-13 FT.  WINDS DIMINISH 
BY LATE FRI WITH LINGERING NW SWELL MOSTLY W OF 103W.  

NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 13N114W 
TO 02N100W...JUST SW OF REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF ACTIVE SW JET 
CORE.  AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST E OF 113W AND UPPER LEVEL 
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT 
SCATTERED MODERATE / ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER WIDE AREA 
BETWEEN 105W AND 113W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB AT 32N140W THROUGH NEXT 48 
HRS MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADES MAINLY FROM 06N TO 26N W OF 120W.
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH AT 
04N111W PROVIDES MECHANICAL UPLIFT WHICH IS ENHANCED BY 
DIVERGING FLOW ALOFT.  

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA CONTINUES TONIGHT AND 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES