000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 01N93W TO 05N106W TO 1012 MB LOW 
PRES AT 04N110W TO 01N122W TO 01N124W THEN ITCZ TO 04N134W TO 
03N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 31N114W HAS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROUNDING 
ITS BASE AND SUPPORTING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N114W TO  
27N119W TO 29N129W.  FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES FRI AS CYCLONE 
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NE OF AREA.  FRESH NW TO N BREEZE 
BEHIND COLD FRONT TO ONLY AFFECT NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND AS FAR W AS 125W...AS WELL AS NORTHERN WATERS OF 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  WINDS DIMINISH BY LATE FRI WITH LINGERING 
NW SWELL MOSTLY W OF 103W.  

NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 20N115W 
TO 05N105W...JUST TO THE SW OF THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TROPICAL N 
PACIFIC REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST E OF 115W...AND THE UPPER PATTERN 
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. THE UPPER 
DYNAMICS AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ARE INTERACTING WITH SW FLOW 
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH FURTHER TO SUPPORT A 1010 MB 
SURFACE LOW NEAR 04N111W...WITH A RELATED TROUGH EXTENDING 
FURTHER N TO 12N114W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW AREAS OF 15 
TO 20 KT NE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGHER PRES 
TO THE NW...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 
110W AND 130W. MEANWHILE...NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT 
AND PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA W OF 110W.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB AT 32N138W THROUGH NEXT 48 
HRS MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADES MAINLY FROM 06N TO 26N W OF 120W. 

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA CONTINUES TONIGHT ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES