000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160901
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 00N92W TO 05N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
04.5N110W 1013 MB TO 01.5N125W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... 
CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 00N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 101W 
TO 112W AND BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 37N115W 
IN NEVADA TO 27N117W THEN SW TO 18N136W THEN BEYOND 14N140W.  
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEVADA IS DIGGING S ALONG COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA TOWARD BASE OF LONG WAVE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD 
FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAR NE WATERS N OF 
28N...AND WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE LATE FRI ACROSS EXTREME SRN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS CYCLONE LIFTS NE OF AREA.  FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N BREEZE BEHIND COLD FRONT TO ONLY AFFECT NORTHERN 
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND AS FAR W AS 124W...AS WELL 
AS NORTHERN WATERS OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

WEAKENING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN 
PLACE FROM 10N116W TO 00N103W. W END OF MONSOON TROUGH RESIDES 
UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WHERE A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS 
EVOLVED NEAR 04N110W 1013 MB. ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES 
TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THIS AREA...TO SE OF PACIFIC SURFACE RIDGE 
AND  W OF CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND INTO EPAC. MODERATELY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
OVER BROAD AREA FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 102W AND 112W.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER WEAKENING TO 1030 MB AT 
33N139W AND IS MAINTAINING NE TRADES S OF ASSOCIATED RIDGE... 
FROM 06N TO 23N W OF 130W AND FROM 09N TO 20N ELSEWHERE TO 125W. 
MEANWHILE NW SWELL PRODUCED BY SYSTEM WELL N OF BASIN CONTINUE 
TO SPREAD THROUGH BASIN MOSTLY W OF 110W. 

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY 
MORNING FRI.  STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS 
AS COLD DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES EASTERLY WINDS.

WEAK LOW PRES OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA IS STILL SUPPORT 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF 
PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE BREEZE FRI.

$$
SS