000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N95W TO 04N105W TO 01N123W TO 02N126W THEN 
ITCZ TO 03N138W TO BEYOND 03N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 
NM S OF TROUGH FROM 122W TO 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 37N115W 
IN NEVADA TO 32N115W ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N120W 
THEN SW TO BEYOND 14N140W.  VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS S 
ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA TOWARD BASE OF LONG WAVE WITH 
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN BAJA...AND E PAC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 120W 
EARLY THU...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE EARLY FRI AS CYCLONE LIFTS 
NE OF AREA.  WHILE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ITS MAIN 
IMPACT WOULD BE WELL INLAND.  ONLY FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N 
BREEZE BEHIND COLD FRONT AFFECT NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND AS FAR W AS 125W...AS WELL AS NORTHERN WATERS OF 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

WEAKENING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN 
PLACE FROM 15N113W TO 00N97W WITH 65 KT SW JET CORE ADVECTING 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO A MODERATELY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT 
PROVIDING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER BROAD AREA FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 111W.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB AT 32N137W KEEPS FRESH NE 
TRADES FROM 07N TO 25N W OF 120W.  MEANWHILE NW SWELL PRODUCED 
BY SYSTEM WELL N OF BASIN CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH BASIN 
MOSTLY W OF 110W. 

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY 
MORNING FRI.  STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS 
AS COLD DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES EASTERLY WINDS.

DISSIPATED 1011 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA NO LONGER 
SUPPORT FRESH N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA...SO WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE BREEZE THU.

$$
WALLY BARNES