000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N96W TO 03N10W TO 02N123W TO 02N125W THEN 
ITCZ TO 03N137W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES NEAR 32N113W 
ACROSS NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 20N120W THEN SW TO BEYOND  
15N140W.  VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS S ALONG COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BASE OF LONG WAVE WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT 
MOVING INTO NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN BAJA...AND E 
PAC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 120W EARLY THU...THEN STALL AND 
DISSIPATE EARLY FRI AS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER 
NEVADA LIFTS NE OF AREA.  WHILE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE 
...ITS MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE WELL INLAND.  ONLY FRESH TO STRONG 
NW TO N BREEZE BEHIND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AFFECT NORTHERN COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND AS FAR W AS 120W...AS WELL AS NORTHERN 
WATERS OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

WEAKENING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN 
PLACE FROM 18N112W TO 00N99W...JUST S OF REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF 
65 KT SW JET CORE.  ATMOSPHERE OVER TROPICAL N PACIFIC REMAINS 
FAIRLY MOIST E OF 112W...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGING PATTERN 
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER BROAD AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 112W.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB AT 31N131W KEEPS FRESH NE 
TRADES FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 120W.  MEANWHILE NW SWELL PRODUCED 
BY SYSTEM WELL N OF BASIN CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH BASIN 
MOSTLY W OF 110W. 

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
LATE WED.  STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 
COLD DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES EASTERLY WINDS.

DISSIPATED 1011 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA NO LONGER 
SUPPORT FRESH N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA...SO WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE BREEZE BY LATE THU.

$$
WALLY BARNES