000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS AREA ALONG 00N97W TO 03N105W TO 03N125W. 
ITCZ FROM 03N125W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 20N120W...THEN SW TO 16N140W. A 
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING S THROUGH CALIFORNIA 
TOWARD THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN 
BAJA...AND THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 120W BY THU 
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY FRI MORNING AS THE 
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. THE MAIN 
IMPACT WILL BE FRESH NW TO N FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE 
NORTHERN BAJA COAST AND AS FAR WEST AS 120W...AS WELL AS OVER 
THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

FURTHER WEST...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY 
AMPLIFIED...WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER 
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. A ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PUSH INTO THE 
NW U.S. THROUGH 48 HOURS...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND CUTTING OFF 
A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE 
THU. 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE 
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADES 
MAINLY FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 120W. MEANWHILE NW SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS MAINLY W OF 110W. 

A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 
20N115W TO 05N105W...JUST TO THE SW OF THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION 
OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE 
TROPICAL N PACIFIC REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST E OF 115W...AND THE 
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA BETWEEN 100W AND 
115W.

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
LATE WED. STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
AS COLD DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES EASTERLY WINDS.

WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA IS PROMPTING 
FRESH N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA AND WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH EARLY THU.

$$
CHRISTENSEN