000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS AREA ALONG 00N91W TO 04N104W TO 04N114W TO 
02N129W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 94W TO 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 129W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 34N113W INTO E PAC TO 22N123W THEN 
EXTENDS W-SW IN TUTT LIKE FASHION TO 15N144W. SHORT WAVE ENERGY 
LIFTING OUT OF MEAN TROUGH ACROSS WRN U.S....WHILE NEW SHORTWAVE 
IS DROPPING INTO BACKSIDE OF TROUGH...SWEEPING ACROSS NRN 
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. EXITING SHORTWAVE SUPPORTED A DISSIPATING 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N110W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA TO 21N123W. FRESH NW TO N WINDS BEHIND FRONT CONTINUE 
TO DIMINISH AS FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AND DISSIPATE TODAY. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INTENSIFYING SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP 
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND DIG S ALONG U.S. NW COAST 
WED...SUPPORTING A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU. 

FURTHER E...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
13N115W TO EQUATOR AT 104W...WITH 60-80 KT JET CORE ADVECTING 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE SPEED 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH JET CONTINUES TO ENHANCE  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER WATERS FROM 07N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 109W. JET DYNAMICS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE INTO 
MEXICO THU...ALLOWING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO REACH AND FLARE 
OVER MEXICAN COAST. 

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 32N137W IS PROMPTING A BROAD AREA OF 
FRESH NE TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 130W WHICH WILL SHRINK 
IN AREAL COVERAGE WED BUT RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE THU AND BEYOND 
AS SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS E PAC. LARGE NW SWELL WITH 
COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS OF 9-11 FT WITH LONG PERIODS OF 12-15 
SECONDS PROPAGATE SE INTO BASIN W OF 110W.  

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
LATE WED. STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
AS COLD DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES EASTERLY WINDS.

WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA IS PROMPTING 
FRESH N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA AND WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH EARLY THU.

$$
SS