000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 00N92W TO 04N104W TO 02N130W THEN ITCZ 
TO 04N138W TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM S OF AXIS FROM 109W TO 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N113W INTO E PAC TO 20N122W TO 
17N140W THEN BEYOND INTO WATERS S OF HAWAII.  VIGOROUS SHORT 
WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER ARIZONA ROTATES AROUND TROUGH BASE HAVE 
BEEN SUPPORTING A NOW DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
32N109W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 27N THEN 
SW TO 23N122W.  FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS BEHIND FRONT 
DIMINISH AS IT DISSIPATES WED NEAR 26N AS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL 
SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS PULL AWAY TO THE NE.  MODEL GUIDANCE LEANS 
TOWARDS INTENSIFYING SECOND SHORT WAVE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONE AND DIG S ALONG U.S. NW COAST WED SUPPORTING STRONGER 
SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU. 

FURTHER E...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
16N116W TO EQUATOR AT 103W WITH 60 KT JET CORE ADVECTING 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MONSOON TROUGH NORTHWARD INTO 
CENTRAL MEXICO.  MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT 
REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION OF ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER WATERS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W.  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET DYNAMICS PERSIST THROUGH THU ALLOWING 
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO REACH AND FLARE OVER MEXICAN COAST. 

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 32N138W PROMPTS BROAD AREA OF FRESH 
NE TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 130W WHICH SHRINKS WED BUT 
RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE THU AND BEYOND AS SECOND STRONGER COLD 
FRONT ENTERS E PAC.  LARGE NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 10-11 FT 
WITH LONG PERIODS OF 12-15 SECONDS PROPAGATE SE INTO BASIN W OF 
110W.  

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
LATE WED.  STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
AS COLD DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES EASTERLY WINDS.

WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA PROMPTS FRESH 
N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH 
EARLY THU.

$$
WALLY BARNES