000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 00N95W TO 05N106W TO 03N122W THEN ITCZ 
TO 04N136W TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM S OF AXIS FROM 119W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N116W INTO E PAC TO 20N124W TO 
18N140W THEN BEYOND TO WATERS S OF HAWAII.  VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE 
ENERGY NOW OVER ARIZONA ROTATES THROUGH TROUGH BASE SUPPORTING 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N111W ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 28N THEN W TO 24N125W.  FRESH TO STRONG 
NW TO N WINDS BEHIND FRONT DIMINISH AS IT STALLS NEAR 26N WED 
...THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE WED AS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL 
SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS PULL AWAY TO THE NE.  MODEL GUIDANCE LEANS 
TOWARDS INTENSIFYING SECOND SHORT WAVE INTO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE 
AND DIG S ALONG U.S. NW COAST WED SUPPORTING STRONGER SECOND 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU. 

FURTHER E...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
15N115W TO EQUATOR AT 105W...SW OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET THAT 
EXTENDS THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO.  MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION OF ENHANCES 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER WATERS FROM 11N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.  ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER 
TROPICAL PAC E OF 110W DUE IN PART TO LARGE AREA OF CROSS- 
EQUATORIAL SW FLOW DEFINES MONSOON TROUGH IN AREA.  UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AND JET DYNAMICS PERSIST THROUGH THU ALLOWING CLUSTERS OF 
CONVECTION TO FLARE OFF MEXICAN COAST. 

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB AT 31N141W PROMPTS BROAD AREA OF FRESH 
NE TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W WHICH SHRINKS WED BUT 
RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE THU AND BEYOND AS SECOND STRONGER COLD 
FRONT ENTERS E PAC.  LARGE NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 10-11 FT 
WITH LONG PERIODS OF 12-15 SECONDS PROPAGATE SE INTO BASIN W OF 
110W.  

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
LATE WED.  STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
AS COLD DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES EASTERLY WINDS.

WEAK 10101 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA PROMPTS FRESH 
N-NE BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH THU.

$$
WALLY BARNES