000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140912 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE FEB 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO THE EQUATOR AT 82W...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 05N90W TO 04N98W TO 08N110W TO 02N125W....WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 01N132W TO BEYOND 02N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 90W TO 116W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A PARENT UPPER LOW OVER SE NEVADA TO 30N120W TO 20N135W TO 18N150W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT SPILLING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A BROAD AND FLAT EQUATORIAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED ALONG 136W....WHILE A LARGE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THEN N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 85W. A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEPARATES THE TWO TROPICAL RIDGES...EXTENDING 11N114W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR ALONG 105W. DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND WEAK ANTICYCLONIC VERTICAL WIND SHEAR E TO 100W CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS...EXTENDING FROM 30N116W TO 27N124W TO 30N133W. FRESH NWLY WINDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF SRN CALIFORNIA TO THE FRONT E OF 124W...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 10 FT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGHER TO THE NORTH. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N142W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND TO THE S OF THE FRONT...TO NEAR 20N105W. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE FRESH N-NW WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST. S OF THE HIGH...FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 133W AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 133W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE NE WATERS THROUGH WED WHILE DISSIPATING... WITH REINFORCING NW SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ENCOMPASSING THE WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY WED EVENING. OTHERWISE...NW SWELL YIELDING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF 110W. E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC...WHILE THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS UNUSUALLY WELL ESTABLISHED HERE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS. RELATIVELY ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN A VERY WET AND UNSTABLE AREA BETWEEN 102W AND 112W...WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRAPPED BETWEEN MILD ELY TRADES AND THE PACIFIC RIDGE. ...GAP WINDS... FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 KT THROUGH WED EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT N TO NE WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH WED EVENING. $$ STRIPLING