000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 00N86W TO 06N113W TO 
02N128W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
02N128W TO 01N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE PASSING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TEXAS AT 32N101W 
ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 26N107W TO OVER THE E PACIFIC THROUGH 
14N120W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 08N130W. A SECOND 
UPPER TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NW CORNER WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY 
FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BETWEEN 
THE TWO TROUGHS...OVER THE AREA N OF 24N E OF 135W AND IS 
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO. 

AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER SW PORTION EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE S OF THE EQUATOR INTO THE AREA NEAR 00N136W TO 
15N135W. LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ROUNDING THIS RIDGE 
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 10N W OF 120W. A LARGER AND MORE 
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 
06N74W TO ACROSS THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO CENTRAL MEXICO 
NEAR 22N101W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED UP FROM THE 
DEEP TROPICS TO AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 
30N130W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ILL DEFINED 
TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND A REINFORCING 
SET OF NW SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEHIND IT. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1030 
MB HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR 31N142W THROUGH 30N138W TO 
23N114W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. FRESH 
TRADES ARE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 132W AND FROM 
20N TO 27N W OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS 
THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 24N W OF 125W BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE 
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE NE.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF A LINE 
FROM 23N110W TO 00N95W. THIS AREA OF 8 TO 11 FT SWELL WILL NOT 
VARY MUCH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS REINFORCING PACKETS OF NW 
SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE FROM THE WATERS N OF 32N.

...GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE 
AIDE OF ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS.

A 1528 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT N TO 
NE WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY