000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130304 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 01N90W TO 06N111W TO 03N133W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N133W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N111W TO A BASE AT 15N125W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDES THE TROUGH...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BETWEEN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SW GEORGIA WITH THE MOISTURE ALSO EXTENDING TO THE S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE N OF 27N. A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 32N131W TO 14N136W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING E OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N W OF 125W...AND ALSO FROM 13N TO 26N W OF 135W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO THE FAR E NEAR 10N81W CENTERED JUST N OF PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE N-NE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE TO ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND N CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N144W WITH A RIDGE AXIS ENTERING THE WATERS NEAR 30N140W AND CONTINUING TO THE SE TO NEAR 22N111W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT IN THE AREAS FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W...AS INDICATED BY EARLIER ASCAT AND EXPERIMENTAL OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 09N TO 22N W OF 130W BY TUE EVENING. AN EXPERIMENTAL OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALTHOUGH EXPECT FRESH WINDS TO RETURN N OF 28N E OF 120W BY MON EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP S OF 32N LATE MON INTO TUE...REACHING FROM 29N114W TO 28N120W TO 29N128W BY TUE EVENING WITH FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N106W TO 09N111W. EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THAT ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE ONLY 5-15 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND ALL ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE...NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 15-17 SECONDS COVERS THE WATERS W OF 100W. THIS SWELL WILL REACH TO 96W BY MON EVENING...THEN WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT AT ITS EASTERN EXTENT ON TUE. ...GAP WINDS... AN EARLIER EXPERIMENTAL OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED 30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND- BASED STATION IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25 KT. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 09Z...WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE EVENING. $$ LEWITSKY