000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 01.5N86W TO 04N91W TO 
02N99W TO 07N110W TO 01N135W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N147W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N112W. A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ENTERING NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA... 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER TO 
NEAR 27N133W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES 
ACROSS THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S. WAS PRODUCING FRESH NWLY WINDS 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT EXTENDED S ALONG THE BAJA COAST TO 
NEAR 28N...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT. A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS S AND SE OF THE HIGH...WITH 
FRESH TRADES INDICATED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 09N 
TO 21N W OF 130W AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...AND 
SEAS OF 9-12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. THESE TRADES WILL 
SHRINK IN COVERAGE BECOMING ORIENTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 
22N W OF 133W BY MON EVENING AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH AND 
RIDGE RETREATS SOMEWHAT TO THE NW. 

A SURFACE TROUGH HAS PERSISTED OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST 
FROM NEAR 11N108W TO 17N104W...AND CONTINUES TO AID IN PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH...N OF 13.5N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVE WEATHER 
AREA BOTH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH 
N-NE WINDS OCCURRING TO THE W AND NW OF THE TROUGH HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT PER A 0454 UTC ASCAT PASS. 

OTHERWISE NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-12 FT COVERS THE WATERS W 
OF 103W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE AND 
DECAY...WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10 FT BY 
MON NIGHT. A NEW PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL THEN ENTER THE WATERS 
EARLY TUE...RAISING SEAS TO 12 FT AND GREATER ACROSS FAR NE 
PORTIONS BY TUE NIGHT.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND IS NOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING IN BEHIND IT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
AND DOWNWIND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A RECENT 0312 UTC 
ASCAT PASS SHOWED A NARROW PLUME OF FRESH TO GALE FORCE WINDS 
EXITING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO 
FALL BELOW GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ACROSS 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA 
THROUGH TUE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF THE 
ADJACENT LAND MASS AREAS.

$$
STRIPLING