000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 01N84W TO 09N104W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 09N108W TO 01N132W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N132W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.

...DISCUSSION...

1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS W OF THE AREA NEAR 30N146W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS ENTERING THE WATERS NEAR 28N140W AND CONTINUING 
EASTWARD TO 24N116W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT COVERS THE WATERS S 
OF THIS RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ WITH FRESH TRADES INDICATED BY 
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 05N TO 23N W OF 130W AND 
FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS OF 10-14 FT IN MIXED NE 
AND NW SWELL. THESE TRADES WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE BECOMING 
ORIENTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM 09N TO 24N W OF 132W BY MON 
AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH AND RIDGE RETREAT SOMEWHAT 
TO THE NW. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS N OF 28N E OF 120W 
BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE 
RIDGING TO THE SW-W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT BY MON AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N101W TO 13N104W TO 08N107W AND 
A RECENT 1606 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH N-NE 
WINDS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO 
INDICATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 13N WITHIN 180 NM E 
OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...DISSIPATING 
BY MON AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE NW SWELL OF 8-13 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF 100W. THIS 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THESE WATERS WHILE 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DECAY TO 11 FT BY MON AFTERNOON.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BY N OF THE AREA 
INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
FUNNELING IN BEHIND IT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS DOWNWIND ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT LAND BASED 
STATION IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO REPORT NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 
TO 30 KT AND A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
COMMENCED AT 18 UTC. THIS GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT 
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY MON EVENING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY N OF THE 
CHIVELA PASS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
THE AIDE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF THE ADJACENT LAND MASS AREAS.

$$
LEWITSKY