000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI FEB 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N88W TO 04N99W TO 05N108W TO 04N124W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING TO 02N131W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION WHERE A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SHEARING OFF THE TAIL END OF DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL U..S SW TO ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AND TO THE CIRCULATION AT 20N111W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SSW TO NEAR 01N107W. OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH A MEAN CENTER OVER NW COLOMBIA. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MUCH OF MEXICO. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VASTLY UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION. THERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE E OF TROUGH. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 95W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HINT THAT A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ALONG 96W/97W S OF 10N. CONFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACTING TO SPREAD AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVITY NNE TOWARDS SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THIS WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE TO ACROSS NW MEXICO THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO SW-W UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BRUSHES THE NRN SECTION OF THE AREA EARLY ON SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND THE WRN U.S. LATE SAT INTO SUN. ITS RELATED COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA. PRESENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 22N140W. HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING ACROSS THE FRONT ALONG 28N W OF 125W. A TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 19N108W 11N109W IS SOMEWHAT OF A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 20N111W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE-E TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 04N TO 22N W OF 130W WHERE SEAS OF 10-15 FT IN A NW SWELL ARE OBSERVED. TO THE E OF THESE TRADES...AND SMALLER AREA OF NE 20 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH THAT RECENTLY FORMED ALONG 19N108W 11N109W AS GLOBAL MODELS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN EXPAND SOME TO THE E AS THE RIDGE BUILDS E AND STRENGTHENS...THEN SHRINK SOME FROM THE E INTO 48 HRS. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT E AFTER 24 HRS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH THE ASSOCIATED 20 KT WINDS DIMINISHING. THE 10-15 FT SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 12 FT IN A NW SWELL BY 48 HRS. ...GAP WINDS... BOTH ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHIP "ZCDF4" JUST S OF THE GULF REPORTED NE WINDS OF 30 KT DURING THE MORNING WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FT. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO WILL DEVELOP BY SAT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF REACHING UP TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND INTO SUN. FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH SUN IN THE PAPAGAYO...AND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA BY EARLY ON SAT. $$ AGUIRRE