000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 04N80W TO 06N91W TO 
03.5N99W TO 05N114W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING 
ON TO 02.5N129W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N AND 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
86W AND 94W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 22.5N140W. RECENT 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE 
FRONT HAS SHIFTED NE OUT OF THE AREA. LARGE NW SWELL YIELDING 
SEAS UP TO 19 FT NEAR 29N139W CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE 
AREA WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE NW HALF OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH TO 
108W BY FRI EVENING AND THEN TO 104W BY SAT EVENING...WHILE PEAK 
SEA HEIGHTS DECAY TO 13-15 FT.

WEAKENING 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS E OF THE FRONT NEAR 
29N125W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 22N113W. A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ FROM 04N TO 17N W OF 130W RESULTING IN 
FRESH NE-E TRADES. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND 
EXPAND THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRES 
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. 
THESE FRESH WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 
125W BY 48 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 18N104W TO 10N110W BY 24 HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL 
WEAKNESS CURRENTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. A MID LEVEL CYCLONE TO 
THE NW...CENTERED NEAR 20N112W IS WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS S THIS 
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT AMPLE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF 
MEXICO....YIELDING SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING 
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN MEXICO FROM GUADALAJARA TO 
OAXACA. THIS WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. FRESH WINDS ARE FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH BY FRI EVENING.AND INCREASE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE 
WATERS S OF 20N IN THIS AREA. THE TROUGH WILL THEN REACH FROM 
20N106W TO 16N107W TO 12N111W IN 48 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING.

...GAP WINDS...
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST IN 
THE GULF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SE MEXICO REGION THIS WEEKEND BEHIND 
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS 
SCENARIO WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO 30 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMAL GALE 
CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED BY SAT EVENING.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
STRIPLING