000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N85W TO 03N100W TO 
05N113W TO 03N122W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 03N122W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH WINDS IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CORROBORATED BY 
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA INDICATE 
THAT WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT. EVEN SO...
LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 21 FT NEAR 30N140W CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE 
INTO THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE NW HALF 
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
REACH TO 108W BY FRI EVENING AND THEN TO 104W BY SAT EVENING 
WHILE PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DECAY TO 13-14 FT.

1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS E OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N126W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SW TO NEAR 20N138W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
IS IN PLACE FROM 05N TO 17N W OF 125W BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND 
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RESULTING IN FRESH NE-E 
TRADES. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND EXPAND 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS 
IN BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THESE 
FRESH WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W 
BY 48 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 18.5N104W TO 13N108W BY 24 HOURS FROM THE REMNANTS 
OF A SURFACE LOW THAT DISSIPATED EARLIER TODAY. FRESH WINDS ARE 
FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BY FRI EVENING. THE TROUGH 
WILL THEN REACH FROM 20N106W TO 16N107W TO 12N111W IN 48 HOURS 
WHILE WEAKENING.

...GAP WINDS...
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST IN 
THE GULF THROUGH FRI EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN 
DEVELOP OVER THE SE MEXICO REGION THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD 
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO 
WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
30 KT BY EARLY SAT EVENING WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY