000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N85W TO 03N96W TO 
04N120W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N120W 
TO 02N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W AND ALSO S OF 04N 
BETWEEN 89W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 23N140W. A 1826 
UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH WINDS N OF 27N E 
OF THE FRONT TO 130W AND N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT 
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN WHILE PROGRESSING TO THE E...DISSIPATING BY 
FRI AFTERNOON.

1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS E OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N126W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SW TO NEAR 21N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
IS IN PLACE FROM 06N TO 14N W OF 120W BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND 
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RESULTING IN FRESH NE-E 
TRADES. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE 
ABOVE MENTIONED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THESE FRESH WINDS WILL 
ENCOMPASS THE WATERS FROM 04N TO 23N W OF 124W BY SAT AFTERNOON.

A 1646 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE FRESH NORTHERLY 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN THE HIGH 
W OF THIS REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE N OF 27N 
W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE NEW 
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W-NW.

OTHERWISE...LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS THE NW HALF 
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITH PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 
21 FT NEAR 30N140W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE 
SE INTO THE WEEKEND REACHING TO THE EQUATOR AND ALL THE WAY TO 
104W BY SAT AFTERNOON WHILE PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DECAY 
TO 14 FT BY THEN.

...GAP WINDS...
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST IN 
THE GULF THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN 
DEVELOP OVER THE SE MEXICO REGION THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD 
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO 
WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
30 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY 
SAT EVENING.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY