000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU FEB 9 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 15450 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 02N94W TO 05N106W TO 03N115W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N115W TO 03N125W TO 04N133W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-102W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 124W-130W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PART OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SW TO A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST SW OF SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA ...AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 08N118W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT TO THE W OF TROUGH WITH ITS NRN APEX STRETCHING NEWD TO WELL NNE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE SE OF TROUGH. WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF MOISTURE RELATED TO THE ITCZ/MONSOON REGIONS AND THAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SRN BAJA...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE DEPICTED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY PRODUCING ISOLATED WEAK LOW TOP CONVECTION THERE. A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE FAR SE PART BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 89W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HRS BEFORE IT LIFTS NEWD OVER NW MEXICO AND DAMPENS OUT IN AROUND 48 HRS. THE RIDGE ALSO DAMPENS OUT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSED JUST TO N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 36-48 HRS LEAVING A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALOFT. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 12 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWS A 1024 MB HIGH AT 32N125W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 20N133W...WHILE A COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY MOVED INTO THE AREA NOW EXTENDING FROM 32N136W SW TO 23N140W. A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF CABO CORRIENTES...N AND NE OVER THE SW U.S. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW TO NEAR 28.5N128W AND STRENGTH SLIGHTLY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT REACHES FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W IN 06 HRS...AN THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR 32N129W TO 22N137W IN ABOUT 24 HRS. GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS OF 3-35 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN 06 HRS. VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS OF UP TO 21 FT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS BUT STILL BE RATHER HIGH...ABOUT 10-15 FT OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 125W WILL EXPAND SOME TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. GAP WINDS... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO JUST INLAND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG NLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT TO FUNNEL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CHIVELA PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF. SHIP "DDAC2" S OF THE GULF NEAR 14N95W REPORTED COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SOME THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...BUT THEN AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN MEXICO LATER ON FRI INTO SAT EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE BACK UP TO 30 KT. SEAS GENERATED BY THE PREVIOUS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD SW AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY FRI. FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF PAPAGAYO DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY FRI MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE FRI NIGHT. N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT FRI EVENING. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU FEB 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 15450 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 02N94W TO 05N106W TO 03N115W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N115W TO 03N125W TO 04N133W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-102W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 124W-130W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PART OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SW TO A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST SW OF SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA ...AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 08N118W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT TO THE W OF TROUGH WITH ITS NRN APEX STRETCHING NEWD TO WELL NNE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE SE OF TROUGH. WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF MOISTURE RELATED TO THE ITCZ/MONSOON REGIONS AND THAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SRN BAJA...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE DEPICTED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY PRODUCING ISOLATED WEAK LOW TOP CONVECTION THERE. A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE FAR SE PART BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 89W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HRS BEFORE IT LIFTS NEWD OVER NW MEXICO AND DAMPENS OUT IN AROUND 48 HRS. THE RIDGE ALSO DAMPENS OUT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSED JUST TO N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 36-48 HRS LEAVING A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALOFT. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 12 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWS A 1024 MB HIGH AT 32N125W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 20N133W...WHILE A COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY MOVED INTO THE AREA NOW EXTENDING FROM 32N136W SW TO 23N140W. A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF CABO CORRIENTES...N AND NE OVER THE SW U.S. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW TO NEAR 28.5N128W AND STRENGTH SLIGHTLY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT REACHES FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W IN 06 HRS...AN THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR 32N129W TO 22N137W IN ABOUT 24 HRS. GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS OF 3-35 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN 06 HRS. VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS OF UP TO 21 FT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS BUT STILL BE RATHER HIGH...ABOUT 10-15 FT OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 125W WILL EXPAND SOME TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. GAP WINDS... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO JUST INLAND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG NLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT TO FUNNEL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CHIVELA PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF. SHIP "DDAC2" S OF THE GULF NEAR 14N95W REPORTED COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SOME THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...BUT THEN AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN MEXICO LATER ON FRI INTO SAT EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE BACK UP TO 30 KT. SEAS GENERATED BY THE PREVIOUS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD SW AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY FRI. FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF PAPAGAYO DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY FRI MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE FRI NIGHT. N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT FRI EVENING. $$ AGUIRRE