000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N86W TO 02N95W...THEN AS 
ITCZ AXIS TO 04N103W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S 
OF 05S BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 25N113W HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 
0600 0600 UTC SHOWS FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 05-10N W OF 120W.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FAR NW CORNER OF
DISCUSSION AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N138W TO 26N140W. GALE FORCE 
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY NW OF LINE 30N136W TO
27N140W NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY LATER THIS
MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY LATE TONIGHT. 
AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN NW 
PART BUT LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE GALE FORCE 
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL STEADILY SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST SEAS WILL 
BE NEAR 20 FT IN FAR NW PART THROUGH EARLY FRI. BY SATURDAY SEAS 
WILL BE 8-14 FT IN NW SWELL W OF 100W EXCEPT GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM 1027 MB HIGH N OF AREA NEAR 
34N125W IS SUPPORTING ENHANCED E-NE TRADES IN THE DEEP TROPICS W 
OF 130W. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND 
FRI WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER A WIDE 
SWATH OF THE BASIN FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 120W BY FRI.

...GAP WINDS...
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
LARGELY FADED AWAY. EXPECT ONE FINAL SURGE OF 25-30 N WINDS THIS 
MORNING FOLLOWED BY EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20 
KT N OF 15N THROUGH SUN. SEAS GENERATED BY THE PREVIOUS HIGH 
WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD SW AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY FRI.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA 
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL