000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 08N84W TO 02N95W TO 
04N110W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
04N110W TO 04N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BETWEEN 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE 
PENINSULA NEAR 28N113W AND 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 
30N128W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH NW-N 
WINDS N OF 24N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. SEAS ARE ALSO 8-12 FT IN 
NW SWELL IN THIS SAME AREA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH AND AN 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST W OF 140W. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN 
EFFECT W OF A LINE FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. A LATE AFTERNOON 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED SOLID 30 KT WINDS IN THIS 
AREA AND GIVEN THE 5 KT LOW-BIAS OF THE ASCAT IN THIS WIND RANGE 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE INDEED LIKELY PRESENT. THE FRONT WILL 
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THU AFTERNOON...THEN BELOW 20 KT BY 
THU EVENING.

MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER (MAXIMUM OF 20-21 FT 
NEAR 30N140W) COVERS THE NW HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK COVERING THE 
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS BY FRI EVENING WHILE 
THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DECAY TO 16 FT.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES 
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND DEVELOPING 
LOW PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU 
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO FRESH AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY 
THU EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL 
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF ENHANCED 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF THE ADJACENT LAND MASS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PANAMA THU MORNING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY