000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 03N90W TO 03N102W. ITCZ AXIS 03N102W TO 
TO 04N120W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N116W TO 24N114W TO 
20N1118W AND IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A NARROW BAND 
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 
24N110.5W TO 21N112W.  SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 10 122W. 
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER NW MEXICO LATER TODAY 
BUT AN AREA OF N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL PERSIST E OF 122W AS 
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THAT AREA.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 30N128W. 
THE HIGH IS SUPPORTING ENHANCED TRADE WINDS IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
W OF 130W. TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS LOW PRES 
DOMINATES NW PART BUT STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA 
THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT 
OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE BASIN FROM 04N TO 20N W OF 120W BY FRI.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEMS IS LOCATED NW OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N146W. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE IN FAR NW PORTION OF AREA PARTICULARLY NW OF LINE 30N136W 
TO 27N140W. EXPECT 30-35 KT S-SW WINDS TO PERSIST IN THIS AREA 
FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL REACH THE FAR 
NW CORNER EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INTO NW PORTION AND WEAKENS LATE THU.

LARGE NW SWELL TO 20-21 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE GALE FORCE LOW AS 
IT MOVES CLOSE TO NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA. EXPECT REINFORCING 
NW SWELL TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE BASIN TO AROUND 110W 
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SOUTH IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WHICH WILL PERSIST IN AREA THROUGH LATE THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE THU.

$$
GR