000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N84W TO 03N90W TO 02N110W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N110W TO 
05N125W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 25N120W TO 20N130W. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. 
OTHERWISE LARGE NW SWELL TO 20 FT IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA W OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO 
THE E TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...DISSIPATING BY WED 
EVENING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT 
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY WED MORNING WITH A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW 
PRES ALONG THE FRONT N OF OUR AREA. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN 
ISSUED WITH WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED 
EVENING. A REINFORCING SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND 
THIS NEXT FRONT PROPAGATING SE AND COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE 
NE PACIFIC WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEAR 27N131W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW TO NEAR 20N140W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TO THE S 
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 06N 
TO 10N W OF 132W. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TO 
125W BY 24 HOURS...THEN WILL STRETCH FROM 04N TO 14N BY 48 HOURS 
AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. LINGERING NW SWELL TO 9 FT IS ALSO 
PRESENT FROM 06N TO 13N W OF 110W...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA OF SWELL 
IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BETWEEN A HIGH IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S OF 
THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO ACROSS THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THU EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF 
OF THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS.

$$
LEWITSKY