000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N83W TO 03N90W TO 02N110W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N110W TO 
05N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 24N120W TO 20N128W THEN IS
DISSIPATING TO 16N140W. A 1728 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT 
BETWEEN 117W AND 125W. OTHERWISE LARGE NW SWELL TO 20 FT IS 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN THROUGH WED WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...DISSIPATING BY THU. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH INCREASING 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE 
TONIGHT INTO WED. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST WINDS TO 30 KT AHEAD
OF THIS NEXT FRONT ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR 
THE NW CORNER ONCE ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING.

A WEAK 1017 MB AREA OF HIGH PRES IS SE OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 
21N117W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW TO NEAR 17N130W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TO THE S 
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 06N 
TO 12N W OF 130W. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE BY THU 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. 
LINGERING NW SWELL TO 9 FT IS ALSO PRESENT FROM 06N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA OF SWELL IS FORECAST 
TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BETWEEN A HIGH IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S OF 
THE AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE AS 
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAVE THUS ALLOWED THE WARNING TO EXPIRE. 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION THROUGH THU 
WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO ACROSS THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THU. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF THE 
ADJACENT LAND AREAS.

$$
LEWITSKY